The Bears are only opening-line favorites in two games this season.against the 49ers and Browns.Ĭheck out each team's win total right here. The Green Bay Packers led the way in the NFC North at 10 wins, followed by the Vikings (8.5) and Lions (8). Unsurprisingly the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots led the way at 11 wins, followed by Pittsburgh (10.5) and Seattle (10.5). The Bears' over-under win total at South Point casino opened at 5, the third lowest number behind only the Browns (4) and 49ers (4.5), owners of the two worst records in 2016. It's also fair to say that their highest ceiling comes with the Brees of old, and there are no guarantees we'll see that same level of genius at work next season.Ryan Pace's decision to draft North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky may yield dividends in the future, but Las Vegas doesn't believe it affects the team's 2017 outlook. The Broncos still managed to win the Super Bowl with a compromised quarterback that season, and the Saints can win plenty of games in 2019 with their defense and an excellent running game. Could it also be something similar to the late-season decline we saw from Peyton Manning in 2014 before Manning struggled mightily in 2015? That's also on the table. From that point forward, Brees posted a QBR of 55.3, placing him between Nick Mullens and Derek Carr.Ĭould it be a blip, a small sample of middling play from an oft-excellent quarterback? Of course. As Mike Sando pointed out on my podcast, the 40-year-old Hall of Famer was playing like an MVP candidate and posting a league-best Total QBR of 88.1 heading into the Cowboys game in Week 13. Projected over/under: 11 wins (over -125, under +105)Īrguably the most complete team in the league on paper, the Saints saw Drew Brees fade badly over the final two months of the season. Teams that improve as much as the Browns did in general often have a consolidation year 67 of the 89 previous teams (approximately 75 percent) that improved by five or more wins since 1989 declined by at least one win the following season. Cleveland's turnover margin was extremely likely to improve in 2018, but its plus-7 mark could be tough to keep up. the Bengals, while the move up the standings will get the Browns a third-place schedule in 2019. Their schedule will be tougher, as they got to face Jeff Driskel for one and a half games vs. What might hurt the Browns, though, are some of the factors that pushed them to success in 2018. With a young core and Hue Jackson safely ensconced outside of the Cleveland metropolitan area, it would be reasonable to expect the Browns to improve in 2018. would have come narrowly short of this total at 7-8-1 in 2018, as ties count as losses for the purposes of these bets. Projected over/under: 7.5 wins (over even money, under -120)Īfter years of ranking as the lowest over/under on the board, the Browns aren't a joke anymore. This is merely trying to estimate what Vegas will set as the average expectation for each of the league's 32 teams in 2019 this spring. I'll have my own thoughts on that as we hit the summer. This is not my projection of how each team will finish in 2019. I don't know where the major free agents will go or whether veteran players will retire, but I do have each team's schedule and their advanced metrics from the 2018 season to help guide the way.īefore we get started, I have to make one thing clear. In the process, I have to make some educated (and/or wild) guesses about what will happen in the months to come for players such as Antonio Brown and Cam Newton, whose 2019 home and status, respectively, remain unclear. The Eagles' total was 8.5 wins, a number they look certain to hit with weeks to spare. I'm going to give my projections for where those over/under marks will land when the books open their 2019 totals for betting. The Houston win total is high given that they went 4-6 in 2015 against teams out of the AFC South, seemed to have a charmed year and now have a quarterback named Brock doing their bidding. The Colts' preseason over/under was eight wins, a high bar to clear for a team that turned out to be awful. Those numbers are generally designed to attract even amounts of money on either side of the bet, although there are some exceptions I'll get to later in this piece. During the spring, Vegas sportsbooks post over/under marks for the upcoming season and give a general estimate of where they expect each team to land in the months to come. Likewise, while I have a Super Bowl preview coming later this week, I have thoughts about where each of the league's franchises might look under a totally different light in 2019. The other 30 organizations might sneak a peek at the television - Doug Marrone aside - but after chasing down everyone Sean McVay is friends with on social media, the league's runners-up are now spending time planning out their roster cuts, scouring college tape for the draft, and preparing for free agency. As the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams play in Super Bowl LIII on Sunday, the rest of the league is, to steal a phrase, on to 2019.
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